Avoidable burden of risk factors for serious road traffic crashes in Iran: a modeling study

Shadmani, Fatemeh Khosravi and Mansori, Kamyar and Karami, Manoochehr and Zayeri, Farid and Shadman, Reza Khosravi and Hanis, Shiva Mansouri and Soori, Hamid (2017) Avoidable burden of risk factors for serious road traffic crashes in Iran: a modeling study. Journal of preventive medicine and public health, 50 (2). p. 83.

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Abstract

Objectives The aim of this study was to model the avoidable burden of the risk factors of road traffic crashes in Iran and to prioritize interventions to reduce that burden. Methods The prevalence and the effect size of the risk factors were obtained from data documented by the traffic police of Iran in 2013. The effect size was estimated using an ordinal regression model. The potential impact fraction index was applied to calculate the avoidable burden in order to prioritize interventions. This index was calculated for theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios. The joint effects of the risk factors were then estimated for all the scenarios. Results The highest avoidable burdens in the theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios for the non-use of child restraints on urban roads were 52.25, 28.63, and 46.67, respectively. In contrast, the value of this index for speeding was 76.24, 37.00, and 62.23, respectively, for rural roads. Conclusions On the basis of the different scenarios considered in this research, we suggest focusing on future interventions to decrease the prevalence of speeding, the non-use of child restraints, the use of cell phones while driving, and helmet disuse, and the laws related to these items should be considered seriously.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: R Medicine > RZ Other systems of medicine
Depositing User: Unnamed user with email eprints@gmu.ac.ir
Date Deposited: 09 May 2017 08:00
Last Modified: 09 May 2017 08:00
URI: http://eprints.gmu.ac.ir/id/eprint/179

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